Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Tetlock, Philip E.; Gardner, Dan

Excellent Mauboussin Research on Superforecasters

Pair with other Decision Making

Learnings from the CIA

How To Decide- Annie Duke 

Think Again - Adam Grant  

Summary

Philip Tetlock’s study of hundreds of experts making thousands of predictions over two decades found that the average prediction was “little better than guessing.” That’s the bad news. Tetlock, along with his colleagues, participated in a forecasting tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community. That work identified “superforecasters,” people who consistently make superi...